If De Beers accedes to Botswana’s demands for more local processing and greater supply control, the "partnership" will finally evolve into equality. If they resist, Botswana may well decide that the "raw deal" is no longer a deal at all.

A persistent grievance in Gaborone is the lack of transparency regarding how De Beers prices diamonds. Because De Beers controls a vast portion of the global supply chain, it has historically set the "standard." Local activists and some politicians argue that:

However, in the context of modern resource nationalism, the historic division of wealth undeniably favored the corporate entity over the host nation. The new sales agreement represents a massive course correction, giving Botswana a much larger piece of the pie and vastly increased leverage over how its natural wealth is monetized.

LGDs are chemically identical to mined diamonds but cost a fraction of the price. As consumers—particularly Millennials and Gen Z—prioritize price and ethical transparency, the demand for natural stones has softened. Some analysts believe that by the time Botswana gains full control of 50% of its production, the global price for natural rough diamonds may have collapsed to a point where the increased volume cannot offset the lost value. Transparency and the "Middleman" Problem

Yet, beneath this success story, a crucial question has always lingered: has Botswana been getting a raw deal? For decades, the government was only entitled to sell 25% of the rough diamonds produced in its own soil, with the remaining 75% channelled through De Beers's network. A new agreement signed in early 2025 has shifted the terms significantly, but the drama is far from over. Now, Botswana’s new president is pushing for a seismic shift – to effectively take control of De Beers itself.

However, the definition of a "raw deal" is changing. Botswana is no longer the fledgling nation of 1966; it is a sophisticated economic player demanding its rightful share of the value chain. The current negotiations are not just about royalty percentages; they are about the soul of the industry.

During the high-stakes contract renewals, Masisi shocked the mining world by threatening to walk away from De Beers entirely if the corporate giant did not concede to Botswana's demands for a bigger slice of the value chain.

The of the Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) The impact of lab-grown diamonds on Botswana's state budget